Why Trump's bump in the polls is more significant than ever

In the past week, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has
risen 3.5 points in national polling averages. That might not sound like
much, but it has been enough for him to nudge him 0.2 points ahead of
Democrat Hillary Clinton. And Trump's latest polling rise is particularly
significant because it might be based on more honest survey respondents.
Three major polls have been conducted since Trump delivered his
nomination acceptance speech at the Republican national convention last
Thursday (and a fourth poll was conducted from 18 to 24 July, so it
included some respondents who might have also heard the speech). All
four polls found that Trump was leading over Clinton. Together, they
were enough to shift the average in Trump's favor.
Post-convention popularity bounces have
occurred in previous election cycles, too –
and they're not always sustained. But this
Trump bump could be different when you
consider that Trump is no ordinary
presidential nominee. The divisive
candidate typically does better in online polling than in telephone
polling. That gap suggests that some people who intend to vote for
Trump are unwilling to say so when they're being questioned by a human
voice rather than a computer screen. It's worth noting that in the lead-up
to the British referendum about the European Union (another incredibly
divisive political issue), online polls consistently got closer to predicting
the eventual result than telephone ones did.
Three of the four latest polls that showed Trump ahead of Clinton were
conducted via telephone. So, maybe the latest polling boost for Trump
isn't about increasing popularity but about emboldened supporters who
now feel more comfortable expressing their voting intent to a stranger.
If that is the case, then maybe we haven't reached peak Trump just yet.
And the timing of maximum Trump support is (to state the obvious)
essential. At this stage in the election cycle, with almost four months to
go before votes are cast, polling averages still need to be treated with
caution – intentions can, and will, change. But that same logic also
suggests that Trump's latest rise in general election polling is more
important than previous ones because voters are getting closer to making
up their minds.
That said, the size of the bump in polling averages matters because
national outcomes don't neatly translate geographically. To win in
November, Trump needs to win enough of the "right" states, meaning
those states with a large number of electoral votes. Take Florida for
example. The state wields 29 electoral votes (of the 270 that are needed
to win the presidency), and it has been a fierce political battleground
(Florida has flipped between Republicans and Democrats three times in
the past six elections).
Currently, polling averages suggest Trump is ahead in Florida – but only
just. The Republican will need to increase his current lead of 0.3 points if
he wants to secure this important win. The question, in Florida and
around the country, is whether these numbers accurately reflect the
extent of Trump's support or whether some voters are still keeping their
political opinions to themselves.